US Surveillance Over Syria - A Comment

It was brought to my attention today, that the Aviationist weblog ran with my Syrian UAV post as well. It's nice to see the blog viewership growing. When I was over there checking out their entry, I ran across a post describing their views on US surveillance activities over Syria, one of which I'm inclined to agree with, partly:

American defense officials told the NBC that “A good number of American drones are operating in the skies of Syria, monitoring the Syrian military’s attacks against opposition forces and innocent civilians alike”.

The Pentagon was quick to point out that these drones were providing surveillance not for a future military intervention but to gain evidence from both a visual and communications perspective to “make a case for a widespread international response”.

However, the confirmation that U.S. robots are flying inside the Syrian territory does pose the question: what type of drone are being used?

Most media outlets are using stock images of Predator or Reaper drones, but those unstealthy ‘bots would be vulnerable to the Syria SAM (Surface to Air Missile) network, believed to be among Middle East’s most robust ones. Both MQ-1 and 9 are Medium Altitude drones that could be operating in Syria only if flying outside the range of active SAM rings. 

Hence, its conceivable that most ISR (Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance) missions in the area are being flown by High Altitude platforms, as Air Force’s Global Hawks or U-2s (or even stealthy RQ-170s, as the one captured in Iran).

The aviationist goes on to speculate around where such missions would occur citing potential deployment of US assets at Sigonella (Sicilliy) and Incirlik (Turkey). While it's certainly possible, my take is that the US would probably be using the U-2s based out at Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Recent imagery from 25 March 2011, still show the U-2 DRAGON LADY deployed out at the base along with 12 x KC-10 EXTENDER air-to-air refueling platform and 4 x E-3 SENTRY AWACS. (In the past, at least 2 x U-2s have been spotted at the base but looking at the previous deployment positions, as many as six could be present).

Multispectral imagery on 25 March 2011 acquired from Digital Globe shows the main operations apron out at Al Dhafra AB in the United Arab Emirates.

If the USG decides to use this platform, the most likely route would be to fly the craft over Iraq and into Syria as Iraq currently has no defensive capabilities around its airspace. In doing so, the US could maximize the U-2 reconnoiter by sending out an additional KC-10 (above) or a KC-135 based out at Al Udeid, Qatar -- refueling the U-2 somewhere over Iraq. Alternatively, the US could move the aircraft from Al Dhafra to Saudi Arabia, pre-positioning the U-2  in order to increase the loiter time over Syrian airspace without refueling. In the past, a U-2 detachment from the 9th Reconnaissance Wing from Beale AFB was positioned out at Prince Sultan AB during the recent Iraq war. Gauging Saudi reactions to the Tunisia conference a couple of days ago suggests SA wouldn't mind the deployment in the hopes to get at Syria. (Let's remember Syria's relations with Iran has always created apprehension with SA. It's often suspected the Kingdom's regional rival, Iran, exerts too much influence on Syria's leadership).

Data retrieved from Sean O' Conner's SAM crowd sourcing project; deployed equipment on imagery additionally verified  by OSGEOINT.

Regardless of the choice, the U-2 pilot will still have to keep a careful eye on Syria's high altitude SAM systems such as the SA-2 and the SA-5. Remember, it was an SA-2 that shot down Gary Powers over the Soviet Union in 1960. More recently, SA-2s were fired at U-2s preparing the battle-space for the 2003 Iraq occupation, although those had no joy. Open sources however do tell us that the U-2 is armed with electronic counter measures, or ECM, which may help in jamming the SQUARE PAIR and the FAN SONG, the SAM systems' associated radars.

While time will tell what action the US will take, it's difficult to see how this will end for Syria. With talk of an Israeli or US strike on Iran, tensions in the Middle East are ramping up. I doubt the US will want to take action in Syria to turn around and have to come to Israel's side on Iran.

As I said to all those disapproving professors in grad school: morality versus national interests, the former rarely applies in Global Politics.